Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to at least 8% despite U.S. tariff risks

Vietnam will officially revise up its gross domestic product growth target for 2025 to at least 8.0% from 6.5%-7.0%, driven by stronger industrial manufacturing, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said on Wednesday.

The new target comes as Vietnam, an export-reliant economy, is confronting the risks from intensifying global trade disputes, including new duties on its steel exports to the United States. Imports and exports are both expected to grow 12% this year, Dung said in parliament, adding that the trade surplus is estimated at $30 billion.

Dung said Vietnam would face a mixture of opportunities and challenges this year, « but the challenges are more prominent, threatening to leave significant impacts on the economy. »

ANZ Research said in a note on Wednesday the mix of U.S. tariffs, weak demand in China and a strong U.S. economy was changing the export environment for Asian economies.

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States hit a record high of more than $123 billion last year, U.S. data showed.

« Vietnam stands out as the most exposed to higher across-the-board U.S. tariffs and being a priority target if the U.S. focuses on economies among the top contributors of the U.S. trade deficit, » ANZ Research said.

The Southeast Asian country grew 7.09% last year, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia.

Dung said industrial manufacturing and foreign investment would lead this year’s economic growth, noting that the industrial production and construction sector is expected to grow 9.5%.

Foreign investment inflows are expected to be $28 billion, while domestic retail sales are expected to rise 12%, he said.

« We will also prioritise keeping inflation under control and ensuring macro stability, » Dung said.

He said inflation is expected to be 4.5%-5.0% this year.

The revised GDP growth target is subject to approval from the parliament, which began a week-long meeting on Wednesday.

By Khanh Vu – Reuters – February 12, 2025