Vietnam’s F-16s plan : a break from Russia or power play in US tariff talks ?

Vietnam’s reported move to buy US F-16 jets could end 70-year defence ties with Russia and risk China’s wrath, analysts say.

Vietnam’s reported decision to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States could mark a dramatic shift in Hanoi’s strategic alignment – and possibly the end of a decades-old defence partnership with Russia – but some observers say the move may be more about appeasing Washington than bolstering air power.

Hanoi is said to have reached an agreement with Washington to acquire at least 24 F-16s from Lockheed Martin, according to US-based defence outlet 19FortyFive, which cited industry sources and a former US government official. If confirmed, the deal would represent the largest military transaction between the two countries to date.

“After lengthy negotiations, Vietnam is now set to become the newest customer of the F-16 fighter jet,” the defence news outlet reported. “No official numbers have been disclosed, but the acquisition is expected to involve no fewer than 24 aircraft.”

Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute whose research focuses on Southeast Asian security issues, said if the sale went ahead, it could set the stage for America to become Vietnam’s “most substantive defence partner”.

It would also effectively mean the end of Russia’s 70-year-old defence relationship with Vietnam, Storey said, noting that over the past decade, Moscow would have moved “from playing the leading role in Vietnam’s defence policy to being a bit player”.

Russia was the largest provider of weapons to Vietnam up until 2022, accounting for about 80 per cent of the Southeast Asian nation’s military purchases over the previous two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Hanoi said at the time that it hoped to reduce its heavy reliance on Russian arms.

During US president Joe Biden’s historic visit to Hanoi in 2023, both countries reportedly began preliminary discussions on the proposed arms sale, said to mark a new chapter in bilateral security cooperation.

Storey, however, warned against discounting the level of trust between Vietnam’s military and Russia’s defence sector.

“The Vietnamese military trusts Russia far more than they do America,” Storey said, adding that many questions remained unanswered as neither Washington nor Hanoi had confirmed the sale.

“Will the F-16s be new or second-hand? If new, is the US ready to sell its latest versions to Vietnam? If second-hand, how could they possibly match China’s stealth fighters?

“And most importantly, why, at a time when Vietnam’s relations with China are developing smoothly, would Hanoi risk provoking Beijing’s wrath?”

During a visit to Hanoi last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for stronger ties with Vietnam on trade and supply chains amid disruptions caused by US tariffs, with both countries signing dozens of cooperation agreements.

China faces US duties of up to 145 per cent, while Vietnam is negotiating a reduction of threatened US tariffs of 46 per cent that would otherwise apply in July after a global moratorium expires.

Nguyen The Phuong, a PhD candidate in maritime security and naval affairs with UNSW Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said the offer to buy the F-16s might be a “tactic in negotiations” with the Trump administration.

Earlier this month, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said his country would buy more American weapons as part of efforts aimed at addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries.

Phuong said Vietnam had been searching for an alternative to its retired MiG-21, the Soviet-designed supersonic jet fighter and interceptor aircraft.

“However, the procurement of F-16s at this moment is more about political decisions aimed at appeasing the Trump administration than about actually benefiting the air force,” he said.

Even if the report was true, Phuong said it was unlikely that Vietnam would buy 24 aircraft as the number appeared “excessive and costly” considering the expenses that would go into training, maintenance and accompanying weapon systems.

“This seems to go against the procurement traditions of the Vietnamese military. A more realistic number would be around six to eight,” he said.

F-16s cost from US$25 million to US$70 million each, depending on upgrades.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow with the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia programme, said China could view the possible acquisition of F-16s combat aircraft as an aggressive move by Vietnam.

“Hanoi will be very careful when deciding whether to acquire these F-16s,” he said.

Vietnam also needed to consider technical issues such as interoperability between Russian and American systems, Rahman said.

He added that Vietnam would likely look to acquire C-130 transport aircraft from the US, as these aircraft were less sensitive when compared to F-16s.

While the F-16 is a smaller and more manoeuvrable fighter jet designed for air-to-air and air-to-surface combat, the C-130 is a military transport aircraft meant for moving troops, equipment and supplies.

Rahman pointed out that despite Vietnam’s reliance on Russian arms, the country had other sources of weapons suppliers and defence partners, including India and Israel. He said Hanoi had previously deployed Israel-made missiles on Vietnamese-controlled islands in the South China Sea.

Vietnam also did not have any problems with Russian equipment despite sanctions curtailing imports of Russian spare parts, Rahman said.

“The contracts they signed with the Russians cover the supply of parts and maintenance,” he said.

By Maria Siow – The South Chinese Morning Post – April 23, 2025