Vietnamese experts pinpoint key points after Trump commits to significant tariff reduction

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced a significant tariff reduction for Vietnam’s exports during his phone talks with Vietnamese Party chief To Lam on Wednesday night, some local economists and business analysts have outlined several scenarios.

The phone conversation between the leaders of the two nations centered on trade relations and negotiations about retaliatory tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the United States, according to the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

During the phone talks, President Trump highly valued Vietnam’s commitment to providing preferential market access for U.S. goods, including large-displacement cars.

In return, he pledged that the United States would substantially reduce tariffs on many Vietnamese exports.

His announcement drew much attention from enterprises, investors, and experts, who remain focused on critical questions: how exact tariff rates will be implemented and how transshipments from third countries will be defined and regulated.

Nguyen The Minh, head of personal client analysis at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, presented some scenarios.

The U.S. might impose either uniform tariffs across all goods or differentiate rates based on localization and origin of inputs, Minh said.

The overarching goal of the new U.S. tariff policy appears to be reducing reliance on Chinese goods, Minh said.

He noted that the most likely scenario is a 20-percent tariff on goods produced in Vietnam, with final rates adjusted depending on the percentage of Chinese-origin materials used.

“The rate would still be a positive outcome, » he said.

“Even though it is 10-15 percent higher than our initial expectation, it would allow Vietnamese goods to maintain a competitive edge over China and potentially even some regional peers. »

Amid speculation about a potential 40-percent tariff on transshipped goods through Vietnam, Minh emphasized the importance of clear definitions.

It is necessary to see specific U.S. criteria for what qualifies as transshipped goods, along with Vietnam’s strategy for minimizing the impact of such policies, he added.

Following the news, stocks of major U.S. companies such as Nike, Apple, and footwear firms rebounded, indicating investor optimism over the preliminary outcome of the negotiations, Minh said.

Although final details and specific regulations for each goods group are yet to be released, Trump’s announcement showed a broad U.S. intent to lower tariffs on Vietnamese products, an encouraging sign for both exporters and foreign investors.

“To fully assess the impact on foreign direct investment [FDI] flows, we also need to compare the U.S. tariff rates applied to other countries,” he said.

Given the stock market’s response, he predicted that the impact would not be significant.

“As with other major events, the effect of tariffs will likely diminish over time as businesses and investors adjust, » Minh said.

“Therefore, panic selling is unnecessary. 

« Any short-term correction could be viewed as a buying opportunity. »

Nevertheless, he urged caution when investing in sectors directly affected by tariffs, such as textiles, seafood, and wooden furniture exports, as well as FDI-reliant sectors like industrial real estate, until final U.S. decisions are made public.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, dean of the economics faculty at the National Economics University, noted that if the U.S. adopts a tiered tariff system based on localization rates, it would support Vietnam’s goal of achieving double-digit growth.

While the final figures are still pending, he considered a 20-percent rate not too bad.

Other countries are also racing to secure favorable terms with the U.S..

In India, negotiations to reduce tariffs are ongoing ahead of a July 9 deadline, while Japan continues lobbying for exemption from the 25-percent special tariff imposed on its auto sector after nearly three months of unproductive talks.

Trump’s announcement to lower tariffs for Vietnamese exports came just days prior to the July 9 deadline before he ramps up tariffs on most imports.

Under the U.S. plan, announced in April, U.S. importers of Vietnamese goods would have had to pay a 46-percent tariff.

By Tieu Bac & Binh Khanh – Tuoi Tre News – July 3, 2025