Vietnam’s Communist Party grapples with succession dilemma after Nguyen Phu Trong’s death

Nguyen Phu Trong’s death leaves the ruling Communist Party searching for a new leader to guide it amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The sudden death of Vietnam’s top Communist Party leader has raised questions about the future direction of the country’s government and policies.

Nguyen Phu Trong, the powerful general secretary who oversaw rapid economic growth and a high-profile anti-corruption drive, died on Friday at the age of 80 due to “old age and serious illness”, according to a government statement.

Trong’s passing marks the first time in over three decades that such a high-ranking Vietnamese official has died while still in office. Experts warn this power vacuum could trigger a period of “power competition” as the party navigates the challenge of transferring authority to a younger generation.

Hanoi has announced plans for a state funeral this week, with two days of national mourning declared in Trong’s honour. The government called the late leader’s 13-year tenure “a huge loss” for the party, the state, and the Vietnamese people.

In the interim, Trong’s duties have been temporarily assigned to President To Lam, Vietnam’s top security official who previously led the general secretary’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign. This shift at the apex of power comes as Vietnam faces crucial questions about how it will manage continuity and change in the post-Trong era.

Major policy shifts are unlikely in the near term following Trong’s death, according to Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington. Acting leader Lam will serve in the position until the Communist Party’s 14th Congress, expected to be held in January 2026, Abuza said.

“For the next 17 months, there will be little policymaking, as the Communist Party of Vietnam is focused on personnel selection and policy grafting ahead of the Congress,” he said. “Even if Trong were alive, that would be the case. Vietnam is in its lame-duck session.”

Abuza views this as potentially beneficial for Vietnam’s economic development, as Trong was a “lifelong communist ideologue” more concerned with control than growth. In contrast, the pragmatic Lam “knows that the party’s legitimacy comes from economic growth”.

He said Lam was well-positioned to be elected general secretary at the 14th Congress, noting that Trong had suffered a stroke in late 2020 and was in poor health, even as the party remained “deadlocked” on finding a successor.

“Trong really believed that he was the only person to carry out the ‘blazing furnace’ anti-corruption campaign,” Abuza said, referring to the late leader’s high-profile graft crackdown.

The analyst said he hoped that Vietnam would return to a more regular transition of power, arguing that no country “should have leaders in their late 70s and 80s”, as the “process of mental and physical ageing accelerates” at that stage of life.

His comments came amid another high-profile leadership transition, with US President Joe Biden, 81, announcing on Sunday that he would not seek re-election, paving the way for Vice-President Kamala Harris, 59, to potentially take over as the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in November’s election against Republican Donald Trump, 78.

A ‘moment of change’?

Trong’s passing marks the first time a general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party has died in office since 1986. That year, the death of Le Duan paved the way for the Southeast Asian nation’s “remarkable market reforms” under the Doi Moi (renovation) programme, said Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Vietnam studies programme.

“So this might also be a moment of change for the country. I expect the political elites will discuss this issue heatedly in the upcoming party Congress in 2026,” Giang said. However, he does not anticipate a major generational shift in the leadership, as the party is likely to prioritise “orderly succession and continuity”.

Giang noted that Trong had left behind a party that was more “securitised” and conservative, with two-thirds of the current Politburo members having security or military backgrounds. With no clear successor nominated, this could lead to a “succession crisis” if the different factions fail to reach a negotiated solution before the 2026 Congress, Giang said.

“However, in terms of foreign policy, little will be affected,” he said, as any new leader is likely to continue Trong’s “successful ‘bamboo diplomacy’” – an approach symbolising strength and flexibility that has allowed Vietnam to maintain good relations with major powers like China, the United States and Russia in recent years.

In terms of foreign policy, little will be affected

Nguyen Khac Giang, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

Vietnam’s successful hosting of leaders from these three nations over the past 12 months is an example of its adroit diplomatic manoeuvring under Trong’s stewardship.

The task of choosing his successor will be complicated by the Communist Party’s own rules.

As Hanoi-born professor Alexander Vuving explains, the party has long idealised a smoother leadership succession and a transfer of power to the younger generation, which is why it instituted term limits and age caps for the top post.

Yet these rules were brazenly flouted in 2021 when Trong, well past the age limit, was granted an unprecedented third term as party chief.

Now, Trong’s death has narrowed the race for his replacement down to two candidates: President Lam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Lam enjoys the backing of the powerful security apparatus, making him a formidable contender, Vuving says – but he believes the president will face an “enormous effort” to secure the nomination, as the party remains divided over a successor.

“Economic development is one of his priorities, but it is subordinate to his need to consolidate power,” Vuving said.

The next 17 months will be a period of power competition, “not normal politics”, for Vietnam, according to Vuving. He points to the party’s “blazing furnace” anti-corruption campaign as “a powerful tool” in this domestic power struggle.

Vietnam’s foreign policy could also be affected by external events. Potential flashpoints include Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, deteriorating ties with Cambodia, or shifts in US policy under a new administration.

In recent months, China has been embroiled in major skirmishes with the Philippines over the disputed South China Sea, while Vietnam’s ties with Cambodia – historically fraught – have taken a turn for the worse. Just this past May, Hanoi’s ambassador to Phnom Penh was summoned over a raft of online criticisms targeting former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

As Vietnam’s leadership grapples with the high-stakes succession battle, any one of these simmering regional disputes could prove to be a catalyst that “tremendously” affects domestic politics, upending the delicate balance of power, Vuving warned.

By Maria Siow – The South China Morning Post – July 23, 2024