To Lam’s rise to the top in Vietnam has been ‘spectacular’. Are we witnessing the emergence of a new strongman leader?

A new leader has rapidly ascended to power in Vietnam and some are already comparing him to Xi Jinping. 

Former minister for public security To Lam, 67, has taken on two of the four roles considered the « pillars » of the communist country’s political system following a period of dramatic upheaval in the government’s top echelons.

Mr Lam was sworn in to the role of president in May, after the resignation of his predecessor amid unspecified corruption allegations. 

Then earlier this month he took the country’s top job as Communist Party general secretary, following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong who had held the position since 2011. 

Nguyen Khac Giang, a Vietnam expert at Singapore think tank the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said Mr Lam’s rise had been « spectacular ».

« A few months ago he was only a cabinet minister, » Dr Giang said. 

« Now [he’s in a position] I would say similar to the power of Xi Jinping in China, because he holds the presidency and the general secretary position at the same time. »

Salt Bae video

Huong Le Thu, the deputy director of the Crisis Group’s Asia Program, said that until his current politburo term Mr Lam — who had spent his entire career in the police bureaucracy — did not have much of a public profile. 

He made international headlines for a video in 2021 in which he was seen being hand fed gold leaf steak by Nusret « Salt Bae » Gokce at his London restaurant. 

The scandal was parodied in a video by an activist and noodle seller, who was later jailed, and even obliquely addressed in a speech by the secretary general.  

A ‘cascade’ of political downfalls

Dr Giang said Mr Lam’s rise was thanks to a « cascade » of other senior members of the government being brought down by corruption allegations.

As minister for public security, Mr Lam had been spear-heading Nguyen Phu Trong’s wide-ranging « blazing furnace » anti-corruption campaign.

Some have speculated that this put him in a position to orchestrate his competitors’ political demise — much like how Mr Xi used an anti-corruption campaign to remove his political rivals. 

Dr Giang said there was no direct evidence Mr Lam was pulling the strings but suspected that once he saw a path to the leadership Mr Lam may have taken direct action to remove the last couple of obstacles.

« I think it’s kind of like a combination of coincidence and his determination to be the top leader, » he said.  

Different political systems

While Mr Lam and Mr Xi now hold similar positions, the analysts who spoke to the ABC said there were key differences between them.

Dr Le Thu said Mr Lam had not yet shown the same ideological drive and personal narrative that had pushed Mr Xi into the position of unquestioned supreme leader of China.

She also pointed out that Mr Xi’s « cult of personality » was the antithesis of the Vietnamese political system. 

Vietnam is a one-party state but it has a much greater emphasis on collective decision-making with many checks on executive power specifically to avoid any one individual becoming a dictator.

« Even if To Lam has more power than his predecessors, I think the departure from collective leadership will be a hard thing to achieve in Vietnam, » she said. 

Dr Le Thu said Mr Lam would probably continue trying to consolidate power, but how successful he would be was « another story ».

« We need to see, » she said. « It’s too soon to say. »

UNSW Canberra emeritus professor Carl Thayer said that Mr Lam was answerable to the Vietnamese Communist Party’s 200-member Central Committee in a way that Mr Xi was not. 

« Mr Xi really is a strongman, » he said.

« The political culture of Vietnam … they would be aghast at Xi Jinping’s power. 

« [It’s] the last thing they would want in Vietnam. »

Nguyen Phu Trong was the only Vietnamese leader before Mr Lam to hold both positions, and he relinquished the presidency after three years.

Dr Thayer said the National Assembly might vote to make someone else president when it convened in October and Mr Lam was not guaranteed to get another term as general secretary at the next party congress in 2026.

« He’s in the running, but it’s not assured, » he said. 

Dr Giang said Vietnam’s political culture meant Mr Lam would not want to be seen to be consolidating too much power.

He might voluntary give up the largely-ceremonial position of president in October, likely to someone in the military, he said.

« So he would basically lose nothing by giving up the presidency and then still gain a lot of reciprocal benefits from the military to consolidate more of his de facto power, » he said.

« So nominally, I think Vietnam will remain a collective-based system but in de facto terms, To Lam is an increasingly [going to be] a strongman type leader.

« And I think it would remain like that for at least in this next decade when he is maintaining his strong grip over the party system. »

Policy direction already ‘set in stone’

In the meantime, Dr Thayer said that the government’s policy direction was already effectively « set in stone ».

Mr Lam has pledged to continue the anti-corruption campaign, pursue the government’s long-standing economic development goals and build on the existing « bamboo diplomacy » policy which involves creating strong ties with as many powers as possible, including both the US and China. 

« In a sense, he’s been parachuted into the driving seat, but he hasn’t got much choice but to keep the foot on the accelerator and stay on the road, » Dr Thayer said.

Mr Lam’s first international visit this week was to China where he met with Mr Xi, which Dr Thayer said was unsurprising as it was the largest communist country in the region.

Dr Giang said he expected Mr Lam in the medium term to focus on the economy and creating political stability, even if it meant easing up on the corruption crackdown, with an eye on the 2026 party congress.

The Vietnamese Communist Party’s goal is for Vietnam to become a « high-income country » by 2045.

« He wants to be seen as a leader who can really govern, and who can bring more prosperity and economic growth to the country, not just simply pursue the anti-corruption drive at any cost, » he said. 

By Will Jackson – Australian Broadcasting Corporation News – August 24, 2024