Vietnam’s birth rate declines amidst disparity
The General Department of Population has observed that individuals with lower education levels, particularly those below primary school, tend to have more children, with an average of 2.35 children, compared to 1.98 for those with education beyond high school. Wealthier families also tend to have fewer children than poorer ones.
Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the General Department of Population, highlighted that educational attainment and economic status significantly influence birth rates.
Statistics from 2023 reveal that the average number of children among wealthy families is two, while poorer families have an average of 2.4 children. Those with a comfortable and middle-income lifestyle have birth rates ranging from 2.03 to 2.07 children. The report, however, does not specify the criteria used to classify wealth.
In addition to economic disparities, urban women tend to have children later and in fewer numbers compared to their rural counterparts. In urban areas, the highest birth rate is among women aged 25-29, with 127 births per 1,000 women, whereas in rural areas, the peak is among women aged 20-24, with 147 births per 1,000 women.
« For over 20 years, urban birth rates have remained below the replacement level, with Ho Chi Minh City currently having the lowest rate nationwide, at 1.32 children per woman, » Hoang explained.
He attributed this to higher education levels, improved living conditions, and a preference for lifestyle enjoyment, which has led to lower birth rates in urban areas.
Further data from 2019 indicates that wealthier, more educated Vietnamese tend to have more sons than daughters. The sex ratio at birth is lowest among illiterate mothers, at 107 boys per 100 girls, and increases with higher educational attainment, reaching 114 boys per 100 girls among mothers with college education or higher. Among the wealthy, the ratio is 112 boys per 100 girls, while it is 105 boys per 100 girls among the poor.
This imbalance is primarily driven by gender bias, with a preference for sons being the root cause of the skewed sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. Additionally, the increasing use of advanced technologies for prenatal sex selection contributes to this trend. The more affluent and educated individuals are, the more access they have to such methods.
Le Thanh Dung, director of the General Department of Population, noted that Vietnam achieved replacement-level fertility in 2006, with a total fertility rate of 2.09 children per woman. However, the national birth rate has since declined below this level, reaching a historic low of 1.96 children per woman in 2023, with further declines expected in the coming years.
« This trend is most pronounced in urban areas with developed socioeconomic conditions, where 21 out of 63 cities and provinces now report low birth rates, primarily in the economically vibrant southern regions, » Dung stated.
Experts warn that sustained low fertility rates could lead to significant demographic challenges, similar to those faced by Japan, the world’s most aged population. An ageing population increases social, healthcare, and welfare costs, exacerbates labour shortages, and diminishes socioeconomic resources.
If Vietnam continues on this path, the population is projected to experience negative growth within the next 35 years. By 2069, the country could have three elderly individuals aged 60 or over for every two children.
In response to these challenges, experts suggest the need for sustainable development policies that encourage childbearing. They advocate for abandoning the current policy of promoting smaller families in favour of one that supports families having two children and provides assistance in child-rearing.
Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan, a member of the 15th National Assembly, proposed shifting from a minimum wage policy to a living wage policy sufficient for a family of four. He also recommended reducing working hours (eight hours per day, 40 hours per week) to allow individuals more time for family life, child-rearing, and personal interests.
By Tri Lam – Vietnam Investment Review – September 4, 2024