‘Airpocalypse’ Now : Vietnam at Crossroads of Progress and Pollution

Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, is ranked as one of the world’s most polluted cities in 2025. This dubious honour highlights the country’s need to balance rapid economic development with preserving the environment.

When Hanoians awoke on 3 January 2025, their city donned an unwanted crown: the title of “world’s most polluted metropolis”. The ranking by AirVisual, which monitors global air quality, placed Vietnam’s capital ahead of the usual suspects like India’s Delhi and Pakistan’s Lahore. It was no outlier: while Hanoi’s air quality had occasionally dipped in the past, the situation has deteriorated markedly since late 2024, drawing sustained attention from the public and policymakers. Other Vietnamese economic powerhouses, from Ho Chi Minh City to Bac Ninh, fare little better.

The haze hanging over Vietnam’s cities exposes the dark side of its economic miracle. Every year, air pollution claims at least 70,000 Vietnamese lives, making it the second-deadliest killer after cancer. The smog extracts an economic toll, too, potentially slashing up to US$14 billion (about 7 per cent of GDP) while reducing urban income by up to 20 per cent. For a country vying to be Asia’s new manufacturing hub, the smog tarnishes its image at a time when environmental and social responsibility commands global attention.

The issue poses a subtle threat to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam — a risk reminiscent of China’s experience. Despite tight state control, public discontent over environmental degradation has been rising, with online criticism and grassroots protests potentially chipping away at confidence in the government.

This pressure partly explains why solving air pollution has emerged as a key political target, underscored by the ambitious pledge made at COP26 for carbon neutrality by 2050. Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, has repeatedly emphasised the need to balance economic development with environmental protection. During a recent visit to Hanoi’s local government, he urged officials to tackle the choking smog and the crippling traffic jams.

Yet, reconciling rapid expansion with environmental preservation remains a formidable challenge. While seasonal changes shoulder some blame, Vietnam’s booming economy is the main culprit. For Hanoi, a World Bank report attributes 38 per cent of PM 2.5 (dangerously small and harmful) particles to road dust and vehicle emissions, with nearly 30 per cent coming from nearby industrial sources.

Efforts to rein in industrial emissions face resistance, as the government hesitates to bear the heavy costs. The country’s reliance on coal-fired power is set to intensify this year, with plants in the Red River Delta operating at high levels to meet soaring electricity demands.

Agriculture further clouds the picture. As the world’s third-largest rice exporter, Vietnam’s farmers produce 40 million tonnes of straw annually, the burning of which emits roughly 50 million tonnes of pollutants. Post-harvest crop burning blankets northern regions in thick smog during the winter, a problem compounded by the government’s inability to enforce bans or offer farmers viable alternatives.

Urban transport presents another stubborn challenge. Hanoi’s 10 million residents own more than a million cars and seven million motorcycles. With limited public transport options — the capital’s first metro line opened three years ago — convincing citizens to ditch polluting vehicles is difficult. Although a government push for 30 per cent electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 and the tightening of vehicle emissions show promise, similar initiatives have fallen short in the past.

Vietnam’s waste management practices further complicate its air pollution crisis. Although burning garbage is marginally preferable to landfilling — which still processes over 70 per cent of the nation’s waste — outdated and substandard facilities significantly contribute to the problem.

Efforts to rein in industrial emissions face resistance, as the government hesitates to bear heavy costs.

The solution, thus, cannot be one-dimensional: it must tackle the full spectrum of challenges, including curbing emissions, reducing the burning of agricultural residue, and modernising waste management — through a coordinated, multi-faceted approach that combines policy reform with technological innovation.

Curbing the open burning of agricultural waste, for example, demands systemic change. Lessons can be drawn from abroad. India’s Happy Seeder programme subsidises machinery to handle crop residue without burning, and China’s biomass power plants convert waste into electricity, offering environmental and economic benefits. In Vietnam, subsidising straw balers, encouraging composting and biomass energy, and setting up collection centres could ease the transition to sustainable practices.

Most crucially, Vietnam needs better pollution modelling, data sharing, and regional coordination — approaches that have proven effective in China’s war on smog. A fragmented system marred by outdated technology and isolated monitoring efforts currently obscures the full extent of Vietnam’s crisis. The lack of unified, cross-province collaboration leaves pollution hotspots unchecked and policy responses piecemeal. Emulating China’s tech-driven, coordinated strategy could turn the tide.

There are, however, promising signals amid the systemic challenges. Late in 2024, Ho Chi Minh City launched its first metro line after more than a decade of construction. Hanoi, already running two metro lines, plans further expansion. Two electric vehicle ventures of Vingroup, Vietnam’s biggest private conglomerate by revenue, show success: its ride-hailing platform Xanh SM leads the market with a 37.1 per cent share, while VinFast sold 87,000 EVs domestically in 2024, outpacing established foreign brands. Simultaneously, Vietnam is charting a green energy transition, bolstered by an ambitious nuclear power push slated for 2035 and renewable energy development under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). These initiatives will gradually cut coal dependence, lower emissions, and ease air pollution in urban centres.

Vietnam stands at a crossroads: balancing the drive for high economic growth with environmental sustainability. Its unchecked industrial sprawl has darkened not only Hanoi’s and other skylines but also the nation’s prospects. By tightening environmental controls and embracing coordinated, technology-driven policies, Vietnam can clear the haze and forge a new path. In doing so, it could rekindle investor confidence while preserving liveable cities and a vibrant society, a transformation that would redefine its development story.

By Nguyen Khac Giang – Fulcrum.sg / ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute – February 19, 2025