Vietnam’s birthrate among lowest in Southeast Asia
Vietnam’s fertility rate currently stands at 1.91 children per woman, ranking among the five lowest in Southeast Asia, according to the Ministry of Health.
While the regional average is 2.0 children per woman, Vietnam’s rate is only higher than Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand and Singapore (both 1.0).
From 1999 to 2022, Vietnam’s fertility rate remained stable around the replacement level of 2.1. However, in the past two years, it has dropped rapidly, from 1.96 in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024, marking the lowest level in history.
This is also the third consecutive year that the fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, raising concerns about long-term demographic and economic impacts.
Despite 2024 being the Year of the Dragon, an auspicious year for childbirth in Eastern tradition, the declining birthrate suggests that cultural beliefs are no longer a major factor in family planning decisions. At the same time, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong noted that current pro-natalist policies have been ineffective in reversing the trend.
Regional disparities
There are stark differences in fertility rates across Vietnam’s regions. The southeastern region, which includes Ho Chi Minh City and its industrial neighbors, and the Mekong Delta have the lowest fertility rates at 1.48 and 1.62 children per woman, respectively.
In contrast, the northern midland and highlands, which includes Hanoi, Ha Giang, and Sa Pa, and the Central Highlands, home to Da Lat, have much higher birthrates—2.34 and 2.24 children per woman, respectively—exceeding the replacement level.
HCMC continues to record the lowest fertility rate in Vietnam, at 1.39 children per woman, while Ha Giang has the highest, at 2.69 children per woman. The number of provinces with fertility rates below replacement level has surged from 22 in 2019 to 32 in 2024, primarily in the southeast and Mekong Delta.
Vietnam’s fertility rate in urban areas has dropped to 1.67 children per woman in 2024, significantly lower than in rural areas (2.08). However, for the first time, rural fertility rates have also started to decline sharply, falling below replacement level in the past two years.
Experts cite work pressure, financial difficulties, career priorities, and shifting societal norms as key reasons behind the low birthrate. In rural areas, early marriage and traditional values have historically contributed to higher fertility rates, but these trends are now changing.
A declining birthrate could have severe long-term consequences, including shrinking the working-age population, accelerating aging, and weakening economic growth. Experts warn that if no action is taken, Vietnam could face a « population collapse », similar to what some other countries are experiencing.
Countries worldwide have been implementing aggressive policies to combat declining birthrates. South Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate (0.68 in 2023), has tripled its budget for pro-natalist programs and offers substantial financial incentives to families with children. Hungary exempts women with four or more children from paying personal income tax for life.
To prevent further decline, experts recommend practical support policies, including reducing child-rearing costs, housing assistance, and shifting societal perceptions toward having children.
« Childbirth should be regarded as a responsibility, duty, and right of every individual, contributing to the sustainable development of the country, » said Mai Xuan Phuong, a population expert.
Vietnamese policymakers are now under pressure to act before the country faces long-term demographic challenges that could affect its future growth.
By Le Nga – VnExpress.net – February 22, 2025