Inside Vietnam’s leadership transition

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party will convene its 14th five-yearly congress from January 19–25, a tightly choreographed political event that will determine the country’s top leadership and policy direction through 2030.

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party will convene its 14th five-yearly congress from January 19–25, a tightly choreographed political event that will determine the country’s top leadership and policy direction through 2030.

The congress comes at a pivotal moment, as Vietnam navigates slowing global trade, rising geopolitical pressure and ambitious growth targets.

How Vietnam’s Leadership Is Chosen

Around 1,600 delegates, representing more than 5 million party members, will attend the congress. Their first task is to select roughly 200 officials for the Central Committee, the party’s key decision-making body.

The Central Committee then appoints 17–19 members to the Politburo, the most powerful institution in Vietnam’s political system. From within the Politburo, the general secretary the country’s most influential figure is chosen.

In practice, leadership outcomes are largely decided before the congress begins, with key candidates vetted and shortlisted during internal party meetings.

Following the congress, parliamentary elections from March to May are expected to rubber-stamp the party’s selections for top state positions, including the president, prime minister, parliament chair, cabinet ministers and central bank governor.

Who Holds the Most Power ?

In recent years, authority has increasingly concentrated in the hands of the Communist Party chief, eclipsing other state roles.

The current general secretary, To Lam, 68, assumed office after the death of long-time leader Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024. Lam, a former public security minister, is seeking a second term.

During his short tenure, Lam has moved quickly launching institutional reforms, tightening internal security and expanding the powers of the police apparatus he once led.

Will Vietnam Change Course ?

Despite leadership turnover, Vietnam’s political system is built on collective decision-making, which has ensured remarkable continuity in economic and foreign policy since the Doi Moi reforms of the late 1980s.

Foreign Policy

Vietnam is expected to maintain its careful balancing act among major powers China, the United States and Russia a strategy known as “Bamboo Diplomacy”, coined by Trong. Although Lam no longer uses the phrase, the approach remains intact, barring major geopolitical shocks.

Economic Direction

Lam has signalled support for a stronger private sector, promoting “national champions” under continued state supervision. While Vietnam wants to reduce its heavy reliance on foreign investment, it remains eager to attract high-tech capital to meet its long-term development goals.

Ambitious Targets for 2030

Economic performance remains central to the party’s legitimacy.

According to a draft policy report, Vietnam aims for annual GDP growth of at least 10% from 2026 to 2030 a sharp jump from the missed 6.5%–7% target for 2021–2025.

The push comes despite mounting headwinds, including high U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports, which threaten revenues from the country’s largest foreign market.

To support growth, the party plans to:

Elevate the private economy as the “driving force”, while preserving the state’s “leading role”

Increase public spending on infrastructure and development

Allow a wider budget deficit of around 5% of GDP, up from roughly 3.1%–3.2% in the previous five-year cycle

How Long Has the Party Ruled ?

Founded by Ho Chi Minh in 1930, the Communist Party took control of northern Vietnam in 1954 after the end of French colonial rule.

Following the fall of Saigon in 1975, the country was reunified under party rule. Since then, the Communist Party has governed without opposition, maintaining a monopoly on political power.

Analysis: Stability Over Surprise, Ambition Over Ease

Vietnam’s upcoming party congress is unlikely to deliver dramatic political change but its implications are far from routine.

Leadership continuity under To Lam suggests greater emphasis on security, discipline and state authority, even as the party seeks faster growth through private enterprise. The tension between tighter political control and economic liberalisation will define Vietnam’s next phase.

The 10% growth target signals confidence but also risk. With global trade slowing and protectionism rising, meeting such goals will require deeper structural reforms, stronger domestic consumption and careful management of public debt.

Ultimately, the congress underscores Vietnam’s governing formula: no political pluralism, cautious diplomacy, and relentless economic ambition. Whether that model can deliver high-income status by 2045 without triggering social or financial strains remains the central question for Vietnam’s next generation of leaders.

Moderndiplomacy.eu avec Reuters – December 22, 2025