Vietnam faces shortage of 1.3 million marriage-age women within 20 years

Vietnam’s General Statistics Office expects the country to face a shortage of 1.3 million women of marriageable age by 2049 due to the long-term consequences of sex imbalance at birth.

In the Vietnam Population Forecast 2024–2074 report it released recently, the office describes the population picture as « seriously distorted, » noting that the sex ratio at birth in 2024 reached 111.4 boys per 100 girls, far exceeding the natural biological range of 104–106.

As a result, men of marriageable age already outnumber women in the same age group by 415,200.

Under the medium-fertility scenario, the surplus of men is expected to worsen year by year. By 2029, for every 100 men aged 20–39, more than three will be surplus.

The number of men of marriageable age outnumbering women is projected to rise to 711,700 by 2034, equivalent to 4.9% of men in this age group.

The imbalance is expected to peak in 2049, when around 1.3 million men, or 8.7%, may be unable to find a spouse.

After this the gender gap is forecast to gradually narrow as the sex ratio at birth returns to a more balanced level.

But the repercussions of the imbalance during the first three decades of the 21st century are expected to persist, leaving Vietnam with an estimated 829,000 surplus marriage-age men by 2074.

Mai Xuan Phuong, a former deputy director of the communication and education department at the General Office for Population, now the population department under the Ministry of Health, pointed to the deep-rooted preference for sons that has shaped society for thousands of years.

With fertility falling to 1.91 children per woman – 2.1 is the replacement rate, at which the population will not fall — the pressure to « have a son to carry on the family line » has driven many families to misuse medical technologies, he said.

Prenatal imaging and fetal sex selection have led to increased abortion rates, exacerbating the imbalance.

The scarcity of women intensifies competition among men in the search for partners, making women vulnerable to higher risks of violence, sexual exploitation and human trafficking.

These social consequences require policymakers to pay special attention when making population strategies and protecting vulnerable groups, Phuong said.

To bring the sex ratio at birth down to below 109 boys per 100 girls by 2030, he suggested a « three-pillar » solution comprising a strict legal framework, close medical oversight and communication campaigns to change public attitudes.

Grassroots monitoring systems should provide early warnings in imbalance hotspots for timely intervention, alongside widespread communication efforts to elevate the status of girls.

The Population Law, which takes effect on July 1 next year, strictly prohibits all forms of fetal sex selection.

Anyone who discloses or reveals fetal sex for the purpose of abortion will face suspension of their medical practice license.

By Le Nga – VnExpress.net – December 29, 2025