Vietnam’s economy grew by more than 8 percent in 2025, government says

The country also posted its highest-ever annual trade surplus with Washington, despite the US government’s recent imposition of a 20 percent tariff.

Vietnam’s economy grew by 8.02 percent in 2025, on the back of strong gains in services, construction, and exports – including to the United States. According to data released yesterday by the General Statistics Office, last year’s strong economic performance, which came after growth of 7.09 percent in 2024, was the second-highest rate in the last 15 years.

Vietnam’s total exports rose by 17 percent to about $475 billion last year, the data showed. The growth in the value of exports to the United States jumped 28 percent, from $119.6 billion in 2024 to $153.2 billion last year.

This robust economic performance was all the more marked given the imposition last year of a 20 percent tariff by the U.S. government, intended to reduce Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the United States – the third-largest in the world.

Despite the tariffs, the growth in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. has pushed the surplus out to a record of nearly $134 billion in 2025, considerably higher than 2024. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), which has different figures from the Vietnamese government, valued the Vietnamese trade surplus at $123.5 billion in 2024. It has not yet released figures for 2025, but the latest U.S. statistics show that Vietnam’s surplus hit an unprecedented $129.5 billion in September.

The ballooning trade surplus reflects Vietnam’s junctural position in the manufacturing supply chains linking China and the United States. During the first Trump administration’s “trade war” with Beijing, when multinational firms began diversifying away from China, many set up factories in Vietnam, particularly in the north of the country, where they could remain connected to vital China-centered supply chains.

As a result, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. in all categories of products shot upward, inflating its trade surplus from $38.3 billion in 2017 to $123.5 billion last year, according to the USTR’s figures. It was for this reason that Vietnam was hit with one of the highest tariff rates in the world – 46 percent – during President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement in April 2025.

This growth was matched closely by the growth of imports from China, including components that were used in the production of goods (particularly electronics) in Vietnam. In the past, Trump’s hawkish trade advisors have argued that this also includes large volumes of Chinese goods that are shipped through Vietnam, or manufactured there will few added inputs, in order to avoid U.S. tariffs on China.

Whatever the cause, this has led to the emergence of a similarly lopsided Vietnamese trade deficit with China – one that was also reflected in the data released yesterday. Imports of Chinese goods reaching a record level in 2025 of $186 billion, up from $144.2 billion in 2024, the Vietnamese statistics showed.

The imposition of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods has seemingly done little to address these mutually reinforcing trade imbalances, and the new trade figures could well impact the ongoing negotiations between Hanoi and Washington over a final trade agreement. While Hanoi succeeded in securing a reduction of the initial 46 percent tariff to 20 percent, in return for opening its economy to U.S. imports, the Trump administration has already announced that transshipped goods will be hit with a larger 40 percent tariff. Exactly how these goods are to be identified and tariffed will be likely be a key point of contention during the current talks.

Nonetheless, Hanoi remains confident in its ability to ride out any challenges. The government is targeting annual growth of at least 10 percent during 2026-30 despite the “difficulties and challenges” facing the country, according to a document prepared by the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) ahead of its upcoming 14th National Congress. According to the document, the CPV is also aiming to lift the country’s gross domestic product per capita to $8,500 by 2030, up from $4,700 last year.

By Sebastian Strangio – The Diplomat – January 6, 2026