As Vietnam ruling party gears up for congress, party chief To Lam looks to retain job

Normally bustling with activity, the alley in Hanoi’s Ngoc Ha ward is now almost empty. No food sellers, no tea shops, no makeshift stalls – just a couple of children playing in the dusty courtyard.

The local authorities have reinforced a new policy to clear the capital’s pavements and get rid of cho coc, or squat markets, deemed to be unsightly and obstructing pedestrians. Homemaker Nguyen Thi Phuong Lien, 42, believes the clean-up was likely done because of the 

upcoming 14th party congress of Vietnam’s ruling party, which is scheduled to be held from Jan 19 to 25.

At the congress, the Communist Party of Vietnam will reiterate its ambitious target for Vietnam to become a developed country with high income by 2045. The new leaders of the country of over 100 million people are also to be revealed at the event, which is held once every five years.

Finding successors

Delegates will in theory elect a new Central Committee – the highest authority of the party – of 180 permanent and 20 alternate members, who will then vote to elect the all-powerful Politburo of 17 to 19 members, and the general secretary.

Yet, according to University of New South Wales Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer, “everything has been set since the conclusion of the Central Committee’s 15th plenum in December, which endorsed the recommendations of the Politburo’s sub-committee on personnel headed by To Lam”, referring to the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Mr Lam thanked party members on Dec 23, 2025, for nominating him and some others to the Central Committee and leadership positions for the next term; his name was pretty much put at the top of the list, despite the age limit set by the party for its top leaders.

The police general, who turns 69 in July, is already past the mandatory retirement age of 65, making his selection technically an exemption.

“Did the Central Committee approve more than one special case?” asked Prof Thayer, noting that the party’s personnel matters are often kept secret.

Some other members of the current Politburo who will also have passed the age limit – such as Minister of National Defence Phan Van Giang, who turns 66 later in 2026 – may also get a chance to contend for the top job, or at least one of the four “core” positions.

These are known as “the four pillars” – the general secretary, the state president, the prime minister and the chairman of the National Assembly.

“The military is better connected to Vietnamese society (than the police) through national conscription, a pool of veterans, compulsory defence education in schools and universities, military-owned enterprises that employ military family members, and as manager of special defence zones along the border and other remote localities,” explained Prof Thayer.

This will help increase Gen Giang’s chances, he added.

Current state President Luong Cuong is a former army general, and Gen Giang was tipped by some watchers as successor to Gen Cuong, who is 69 and due for retirement.

Yet, there has been talk of combining the positions of party general secretary and state president – this move would require amending Vietnam’s Constitution or obtaining approval from the Central Committee and endorsement by the National Assembly.

If the two roles are merged, this will scupper Gen Giang’s chances of serving as state president, said Prof Thayer.

Mr Lam is expected to assume both roles if they are combined.

Dr Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the Vietnam Studies Programme of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that, in his view, Gen Giang is “still very much in the game”.

“He has just been nominated to run for the March 2026 National Assembly election, which strongly suggests he remains in the top-tier pool,” he noted.

“Substantively, Gen Giang’s a career military officer, so his public profile is more about stability, discipline and defence priorities, whereas Mr Lam’s signature has been organisational reshaping, a pivot to the private sector and a more assertive security-driven approach to system management.”

By Nga Pham – The Straits Times – January 18, 2026