Vietnam bets big on To Lam’s power and growth strategy

Vietnam’s Communist Party has handed To Lam another five-year term and endorsed a reform agenda aimed at transforming the economy by 2030.

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party has renewed its leadership and endorsed an ambitious reform program after its National Congress in Hanoi last week.

The congress, which is held once every five years and sets Vietnam’s political direction and economic targets, wrapped up nearly two days earlier than expected. This likely indicated that no divisions emerged within the party over leadership positions.

Party delegates who met in the capital last Friday reelected To Lam to another five-year term as the Communist Party general secretary, cementing the former security boss as Vietnam’s dominant political figure.

Although no formal announcement was made, the composition of the newly-elected Politburo, Vietnam’s highest decision-making body, « strongly suggests » that To Lam is poised to also become president, said Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute’s Vietnam Studies Program in Singapore.

Unlike in China, where the analogous two roles have been merged for decades, it is incredibly rare for a Vietnamese leader to hold two of the country’s most important positions.

In his speech to delegates at the Communist Party congress, To Lam committed Vietnam to achieving 10% economic growth rates over the next five years.

He vowed to shift Vietnam from low-cost manufacturing toward innovation and efficiency to make Vietnam a high-middle-income economy by 2030.

Who is Vietnam’s To Lam ?

To Lam rose to prominence as the public security minister and a key enforcer of the sweeping anti-corruption campaign launched by the former party chief, Nguyen Phu Trong.

After Trong’s death in July 2024, he took over as the party’s general secretary, Vietnam’s most powerful political role.

He moved quickly to consolidate control and place allies from the security services and his home province of Hung Yen into influential posts.

He also launched what he called an institutional « revolution » designed to modernize the state, cut red tape and speed up decision-making. 

The administrative overhaul halved the number of provinces and merged or abolished several key ministries.

Economically, To Lam has embraced Resolution 68, a policy adopted last April by the Politburo. It aims to make the country’s homegrown private companies the « most important driving force » of the economy by 2035.

Power consolidation raises new risks

The congress’s swift endorsement of To Lam as general secretary underlined his grip on the party, Le Hong Hiep, from the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.

« This consensus indicates that his reforms have garnered substantial support from Vietnam’s top leadership, despite some grievances from certain party members or state officials regarding the way the bureaucratic streamlining and provincial mergers have been conducted, » he added. 

But critics say it concentrates power in a leader whose background is in internal security, risking the end of Vietnam’s informal checks and balances that have prevented a dictator-like figure from dominating the party and from outlawing internal dissent.

« This concentration of power poses the risk that future reforms may be executed without sufficient deliberation or critical review, potentially leading to policy errors, » said Hiep.

« Whether such errors will occur will depend on his willingness to heed dissenting opinions and the influence of his advisory team, » he added.

Economic challenges ahead for Vietnam

By unanimously endorsing To Lam, the National Congress has tied Vietnam’s next five years to his goals for administrative reform and economic growth.

« It may be both an endorsement of his reform agenda and a sign of his consolidated power. Hard to say which is weightier, » Alexander Vuving, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, told DW.

« While this strong mandate will give him a free hand to pursue his agenda, it’s far from certain that this agenda will succeed, » he added.

Vietnam’s economy has boomed on exports and foreign investment, and it remains one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing manufacturing hubs.

But the external environment is more uncertain, with slower global demand and renewed trade pressure from Washington under President Donald Trump.

Despite reducing US tariffs from 46% to 20%, Vietnam remains considerably exposed to Washington’s threat to target « transshipped » goods, which refers to products that are either exported directly through Vietnam from China or that contain a large percentage of Chinese inputs.

Tougher tariffs or supply-chain rules could hit the Vietnamese factories that drive jobs and living standards.

Push for growth meets structural risks

Analysts also warn that corruption remains a stubborn drag, even after years of high-profile anti-graft campaigns.

And while Resolution 68 talks up entrepreneurship, much of the state’s backing is expected to flow to a small number of « national champions, » nominally private firms that rely on preferential credit and state-backed infrastructure projects.

« To Lam’s agenda to accelerate economic growth by government spending incurs financial debt and inflation, » Tuong Vu, professor and director of the US-Vietnam Research Center at the University of Oregon in the US, told DW. « If they are not careful, there will be massive failures like a decade ago. »

For To Lam, the challenge is not just setting targets but keeping Vietnam’s growth model resilient in a world where geopolitics increasingly shapes trade, investment and technology flows, and where the room for policy mistakes may be shrinking.

By David Hutt – Deutsche Welle – January 26, 2026