To Lam’s blueprint for a rising Vietnam: build fast, grow rich

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief is staking his legacy on 10 per cent growth, domestic megaprojects and an overseas charm offensive

If all goes to plan, in under three years the world’s largest stadium will tower over Hanoi’s southern suburbs as a shimmering monument to the good times ahead for Vietnam and, by extension, its leader To Lam, the secret policeman who now holds power.

The golden, drum-shaped Trong Dong Stadium, with a capacity of 135,000, is the centrepiece of a proposed US$38 billion new town designed to ease Vietnamese capital’s chronic congestion.

Vingroup, the country’s dominant cars-to-minimarts conglomerate, is set to build it with generous state support under the public-private model favoured by Vietnam’s government.

But To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, is just getting started.

His government is set to lavish tens of billions of dollars on long-delayed airports, high-speed rail lines and nuclear power plants – an infrastructure push fit for the “new era of national rise”, as the party sloganeering puts it.

And, as with much of To Lam’s vision for Vietnam, speed is of the essence.

Ground was broken on the new stadium in December, but it is not slated for completion until August 2028 – still faster than the Narendra Modi Stadium in New Delhi, Beijing’s Bird’s Nest or Wembley in London.

“A lot of projects that have been idle for years have been reactivated,” said Dr Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and coordinator of its Vietnam studies programme.

The stadium was among the “new symbols, new icons that reflect Vietnam’s rise”, he said − and “a landmark of the new status as a developed economy”.

The government’s timeline sets 2045 as the year Vietnam must become a “high-income country” – seven decades after the Communist Party expelled American forces and unified a war-shattered country.

Vietnam has since transformed from one of Asia’s poorest nations, through the market-opening Doi Moi reforms of the 1980s, into one of its most dynamic economies. It is now poised to supplant Thailand as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy within a couple of years.

To Lam, the 68-year-old former head of the Ministry of Public Security whose term as general secretary was renewed for five years in January by the National Assembly, has placed astronomical growth at the heart of his recipe for success – aiming for a 10 per cent annual bounce, starting this year.

“The target is extraordinarily ambitious,” said Vietnam specialist Edmund Malesky, a professor of political economy at Duke University.

“Vietnam has grown fast over the past 30 years, but its annual growth rates have often been between 6 and 7 per cent. I see it more as a way of creating a focal point to orient the work of policymakers and bureaucrats.”

The state is set to unleash eye-watering financing on the megaprojects that will define the coming decade. A north-south high-speed rail link, slashing travel times between the two biggest cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to just five hours, is slated to cost upwards of US$65 billion.

One of the private firms that could deliver it, Vinfast, the transport arm of Vingroup, pulled out of the project in December over the cost.

Moody’s Ratings on Thursday urged some of Vietnam’s largest state-owned banks to “aggressively build their capital buffers”, estimating that infrastructure spending would increase the country’s debt burden to around 40 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of the decade, Reuters reported.

“Of course it comes with risks,” said foreign policy researcher Hiep of the wider growth target.

“Unrealistic goals may misguide resource allocation and make businesses take reckless decisions. [And] inflationary pressures, rising bad debts, asset bubbles and fiscal constraints could emerge if they use state budgets to fund megaprojects.”

Rise of the reformers

To Lam is no stranger to a dice roll, however. His extraordinary personal ascent – from police academy graduate in small-town northern Vietnam to head of the feared Ministry of Public Security, and then general secretary in August 2024 following the death of his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong – demonstrated patience, ruthlessness and excellent timing.

“He kind of surprised everyone, he didn’t seem to be too ambitious at first,” said Tuong Vu, a professor of political science at the University of Oregon.

“That’s how politicians in Vietnam behave until they get to the top, by pretending to be modest to avoid being taken down by rivals.”

Instead, it was To Lam who went on the attack.

With Trong’s blessing, he spearheaded the near decade-long “blazing furnace” anti-corruption campaign – a purge that began in 2013 and ripped through the top ranks of the party, ultimately disciplining 20,000 party members. It also cleared a path to power for the state’s chief secret policeman, who used his position to build alliances and loyalties as rivals fell by the wayside.

“This guy was really shrewd,” Vu said. “He knew the way to isolate rivals, take them down one by one … his power was unchallengeable by any insider. Then he moved very quickly.”

Following Trong’s death in July 2024, To Lam’s succession to general secretary – the top of the party tree – was as rapid as it was smooth. He quickly set about consolidating power and setting a course for the biggest reforms in a generation.

The number of provinces was slashed from 63 to 34, streamlining decision-making and policy implementation – and crucially, extending To Lam’s national reach through his appointed allies, including those from his home province of Hung Yen.

Key policy documents issued since have pivoted the economy towards innovation and AI, backing private business as “national champions” to vault Vietnam up the value chain in place of its old dependence on hulking state enterprises.

“These are the most widespread changes we have seen in Vietnam since the Doi Moi reforms,” Malesky said. “Implementation of such a grand vision would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.”

But as investors coo at the prospect of a less bureaucratic and less corrupt Vietnam, some experts warn of the dangers of moving too fast.

“To Lam has all the power and seems on top of his game right now … [but] his economic ideas are mostly giving away money,” Vu said.

“While it is hard to know exactly what he is thinking, the economy is going to run into a lot of problems, maybe five years down the road.”

Trump conundrum

That road ahead is far from smooth. Washington’s trade ructions may serve to squeeze Vietnam’s exports while deepening its dependence on Chinese investment, analysts say. Fast money also has a bad habit of inflating real estate and financial markets.

“Because a lot of data from Vietnam is not available, we don’t quite know until things get broken,” Vu said.

To Lam has been on a charm offensive with both China’s President Xi Jinping – whom he visited in Beijing shortly after taking up the top role in 2024 – and more recently the transactional US President Donald Trump.

Eric Trump, the US president’s second son, has been a regular visitor to Vietnam, sealing a slew of real estate deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars, including for an 18-hole golf course and resort in To Lam’s home province.

Lam and President Trump shared a handshake for the cameras at the White House on February 19 before talks on the sidelines of the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace” — the US president’s diplomatic initiative that Vietnam was quick to join.

In 2024, the US ran a trade deficit of US$123.5 billion with Vietnam, inviting Trump’s ire – especially over the alleged large-scale transshipment of Chinese goods seeking to evade tariffs from his first presidency.

The 46 per cent blanket tariff Trump had threatened to impose on Vietnam came down to 20 per cent in July following a framework trade deal, then fell further still after his Supreme Court defeat on February 20, in a win for one of Southeast Asia’s top exporters.

To Lam recently welcomed “positive talks” on a full trade deal after talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington, with a trio of Vietnamese airlines agreeing to buy scores of Boeing aircraft as part of a US$37.2 billion basket of concessions to its largest overseas market.

“To Lam got the entree he wanted,” said Carlyle Thayer, a long-time researcher of Vietnamese politics and emeritus professor with the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

“Trump spoke positively about Vietnam’s willingness to balance trade and To Lam’s suggestions that the two sides could step up cooperation in economic, science and technology fields.”

Crucially, Vietnam secured removal from a US list that restricts the export of high-end technology integral to semiconductors and other components crucial to AI development.

Brewing good times

From the taprooms of the East West Brewing Company, founder Loc Truong has measured Vietnam’s changing tastes by the glass, and by the fullness of its economic cup.

Among his aspirational, mainly young clientele rest the hopes of a country that needs to get rich before it gets too old – or becomes stuck in the dreaded low-productivity “middle income trap” that afflicts Thailand and Malaysia.

“The market has become more sophisticated,” he told This Week in Asia. “Consumers are travelling more, exposed to global trends through social media, and are increasingly selective about where they spend their time and money.”

His brewery has expanded from its Ho Chi Minh City base to Da Nang and Phu Quoc Island, with several more openings planned for this year – a small window onto Vietnam’s growth economy. Among the growing clientele are tourists, with Vietnam now firmly on the global travel map.

“There’s more confidence in how Vietnam presents itself to the world,” Loc said.

“You see it in infrastructure investments – new airport expansions, better connectivity, major international events like Apec – and a broader push to position Vietnam as a serious destination, not just an alternative to somewhere else.”

Global economic headwinds could yet derail To Lam’s ambitions. His domestic reforms may fail and the climate crisis is chipping away at growth each year as increasingly powerful typhoons destroy fields, homes and infrastructure.

Still, among a Vietnamese public who cannot safely criticise its government, there appears to be confidence in the country’s broad direction of travel.

“It’s hard to know for sure, but there seems to be a lot of optimism,” Vu said. “To Lam is somewhat better than the previous one [Trong] and he doesn’t talk about ridiculous Marxism-Leninism. The feeling is Vietnam is rising.”

By Aidan Jones – The South China Morning Post – March 1st, 2026